Sezvo indasitiri yepasi rose yemagetsi nemidziyo yemagetsi yapinda mugore rakakosha re2026, shanduko yechimiro ichikonzerwa nekuchinja kwesimba rinogona kushandiswazve uye kuvandudzwa kwegrid iri kuramba ichikura. Kunyange hazvo chikamu ichi chichifara nekukura kuri kukonzerwa nekushandiswa kwesimba rakachena uye kudiwa kwemagetsi kuri kuwedzera, chinotarisanawo nematambudziko ari kuwedzera kubva kumiganhu yecheni yekugovera, shanduko dzemitemo uye kuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji. Tichishandisa data razvino kubva kuIEA Electricity 2026 Report, nhamba dzekutengeserana kwetsika dzepasi rose uye tsvakiridzo yeindasitiri, chinyorwa chino chinoongorora mamiriro matsva,matambudziko makuru uye nzira dzemangwanakuumba indasitiri iyi muna 2026.
1. Kudzoreredzwa Kwesimba Kunobatanidza, Kunosimudzira Kudiwa Kwekuvandudzwa Kwemidziyo Yepamusoro-soro
Gore ra2026 rinova nguva yekuchinja kukuru kwemusanganiswa wemagetsi pasi rose: magetsi anodzorerwa asvika padanho repamusoro senzvimbo yemagetsi makuru pasi rose, zvichigumisa simba remagetsi emagetsi emagetsi rinosvika zana remakore sezvakafungidzirwa neIEA. Simba rezuva rePV nemhepo pamwe chete zvinoita kuti pave ne20% yemagetsi epasi rose, nemagetsi ezuva rePV ari kukura nekukurumidza—magetsi ayo egore negore akasvika 620 TWh muna 2025, kukwira kukuru kubva pa450 TWh muna 2024, uye anotarisirwa kupfuura simba remhepo, renyukireya neremvura munguva pfupi iri kutevera. Kuwedzera uku nekukurumidza hakuchagumiri pakudiwa kwemidziyo; panzvimbo pezvo, kuri kusimudzira kusimudzira muchikamu chemidziyo yemagetsi.
Zvichienderana nekubatanidzwa kukuru kwemagetsi anodzokororwa, kudiwa kwemidziyo inoshanda zvakanyanya uye ine njere kuri kuwedzera. Midziyo yemagetsi inofambisa magetsi ine simba guru (HVDC), iyo inogadzirisa dambudziko remagetsi anodzokororwa anotumirwa kure uye asingarasikirwe zvakanyanya, yakaona kukura kwemusika wepasi rose kweanopfuura 25% muna 2026. Zvichakadaro, ma inverters akangwara ane kugona kwekutonga kwakabatana negrid uye mabasa ekuchengetedza simba ave magadzirirwo akajairwa emapurojekiti matsva ezuva nemhepo. Zvakakosha kuti, kutengeswa kwemagetsi emagetsi ezuva nemagetsi eDC anochinjika muChina kwakawedzera ne81.5% gore negore mumwedzi miviri yekutanga ya2026, zvichitungamira ketani yemagetsi epamusoro-soro pasi rose.
2. Kuwedzera kweKudiwa Kunoramba Kuchienderera Mberi, Kutsungirira Kwekutengesa Kunova Mukwikwidzi Mukuru
Kudiwa kwemagetsi pasi rose kuri kuramba kuri munzira yayo yakasimba yekukura, kuchikwira ne3.7% muna 2026—inenge kaviri nehafu yekukura kwesimba rose—kuchikonzerwa nekushandiswa kwemagetsi mumaindasitiri, kuwedzera nzvimbo dzedata dzeAI, kupinda kwemagetsi emagetsi uye kuwedzera kwekutonhodza muzhizha. Hupfumi huri kusimukira hunoramba huri injiyo huru yekukura, huchipa mukana weinenge 80% yezvinodiwa zvemagetsi matsva pasi rose panosvika 2030, nepo hupfumi hwakabudirira huri kuonawo kudzoka kwekushandiswa kwemagetsi, neAI nekugadzira zvinhu zvepamusoro-soro zvichiva zvinhu zvitsva zvinokurudzira kukura.
Kuwedzera kwekuda uku kwakawedzera kusimbaradza kuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvakakosha. Matransformer, switchgear uye tambo dzemagetsi ane simba guru dziri kushomeka, nguva yekutungamira yezvimwe zvigadzirwa zvakakosha inosvika mwedzi 8-12. Vagadziri vari kuwedzera kugona kwavo kugadzira, asi vanotarisana nematambudziko ekusagadzikana kwemitengo yezvinhu zvisina kugadzirwa - mitengo yemhangura nearuminiyamu yave kuchinja-chinja neinopfuura 20% pagore - uye kukanganiswa kwezvekufambisa kwezvinhu dzimwe nguva. Kuti vagadzirise izvi, mabhizinesi mazhinji ari kukurumidza kurongedza "China+N", vachiendesa chikamu chesimba rekugadzira kuSoutheast Asia uku vachibatanidza cheni huru yekugovera muChina, kuti vawedzere kusimba kubva kunjodzi dzezvematongerwo enyika nedzemusika. Musika wepasi rose wemagetsi wekutumira nekuparadzira michina unokosheswa paUSD 142.8 bhiriyoni muna 2026, nematransformer achitora 38.2% yemugove wemusika, zvichiratidza chinzvimbo chikuru chezvikamu zvakakosha muindasitiri.
3. Kuchengetedzwa Kwemabhatiri Kunokura Mukutengeserana, Kuchiva Nheyo Inokosha Yekuchinjika Kwegridi
Kuderera kuri kuramba kuripo kwemitengo yekuchengetedza mabhatiri kwakaita kuti iwedzere kubatanidzwa kwayo mumagetsi. Mushure mekudzikira kwe27% pagore muna 2025, mitengo yekuchengetedza mabhatiri kwemaawa mana yakagara pamadhora angangoita 78-80/MWh muna 2026, nemitengo yemabhatiri yakakura ichisvika madhora 80/kWh—inenge 50% yakaderera pane muna 2023. Iyi mukana wemutengo wakaita kuti masisitimu ekuchengetedza simba remabhatiri (BESS) akwikwidzane nefekitori dzinogadzira gasi mumisika yakawanda, zvichiita kuti simba rekuchengetedza simba rezuva repasi rose riwedzere kuti rirambe richikura zvakanyanya.
Kunze kwekuderera kwemitengo, kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji kuri kuwedzera mamiriro ekushandiswa kwekuchengetedza mabhatiri. Tekinoroji yemabhatiri yeLithium iron phosphate (LFP) yakagamuchirwa zvakanyanya, zvichivandudza huwandu hwesimba uye kushanda zvakanaka kwekubatanidza masisitimu. Panguva imwecheteyo, kudiwa kwemidziyo inotsigira senge masisitimu ekugadzirisa mabhatiri (BMS), smart grid controls uye frequency regulation equipment kuri kukura nekukurumidza, sezvo zvakakosha mukugadzirisa kusagadzikana uye kusagadzikana kwekugadzirwa kwesimba rinogona kudzokororwa. IEA inotaura kuti kuchengetedza mabhatiri, pamwe nekuvandudzwa kwegrid, kuchava kiyi yekuvhura kugona kwese kwesimba rinogona kudzokororwa, nekugona kwekuchengetedza kwepasi rose kunotarisirwa kuwedzera zvakanyanya kutsigira chinangwa che50% chesimba rakaderera remhepo panosvika 2030.
4. Kuchinjana kweMagariro Emunzvimbo, Vatengesi Vekunze vekuAsia Vanoramba Vachitungamira
Musika wepasi rose wemidziyo yemagetsi unoratidza musiyano wakasiyana munharaunda muna 2026. Asia ichiri musimboti wekupa nekudiwa kwemidziyo yemagetsi pasi rose: Kutengeswa kwemidziyo yemagetsi kuChina kwakakwira ne32.7% gore negore mumwedzi miviri yekutanga, nekudiwa kukuru kwezvikamu zvemagetsi mashoma uye matransformer ekuparadzira muMiddle East, North America neEurope. Kutengeswa kwemidziyo yemagetsi kuJapan kwakakwirawo ne11.3% gore negore, zvichikonzerwa nemidziyo ine chekuita nesemiconductor, nekutumira kwakasimba kunyika dzeSoutheast Asia dzakadai seTaiwan, Malaysia neVietnam.
MuEurope neNorth America, kuvandudzwa kwegrid uye kushandiswa kwesimba rinogona kudzokororwa ndizvo zvinonyanya kukonzera kudiwa kwemidziyo. Chirongwa cheEU che "Fit for 55" chakakurumidzisa kubviswa kwemagetsi anoshandisa marasha, zvichiwedzera kudiwa kwemidziyo yegrid yakangwara uye masisitimu ekuchengetera simba. US inobatsirwa neInvestment Tax Credit (ITC) uye mitemo yakafanana nayo, ichitungamira kutengeswa kwemabhatiri pasi rose, asi inotarisana nemitengo yakakwira yemidziyo nekuda kwemitemo yenzvimbo uye zvirambidzo zvekutengeserana. Misika iri kusimukira muSoutheast Asia neAfrica iri kuva nzvimbo itsva dzekukura, nekudiwa kuri kuwedzera kwemidziyo yekufambisa magetsi nekugovera magetsi zvichikonzerwa nekukura kwemaguta nemagetsi, asi zvichigumiswa nekushaya mari yakakwana yegrid uye kugona kwehunyanzvi.
5. Maonero Enguva Refu: Kudyara Mari muGrid uye Kuvandudza Tekinoroji Zvinosimudzira Kukura Kunogara Kwakasimba
IEA inofungidzira kuti simba risingabudisi mweya wakawanda—rinotungamirirwa nemagetsi anodzokororwa uye nuclear—richave ne50% yemagetsi epasi rose panosvika 2030, kubva pa42% muna 2025, izvo zvinoda kuwedzera kwe50% mumari yekudyara pasi rose pagrid pagore kubva padanho razvino remadhora mabhiriyoni mazana mana emadhora. Mari iyi yakakura ichagadzira kudiwa kwakasimba kwemidziyo yemagetsi inoshanda zvakanaka, inoenderana nemitemo uye yakangwara muzvikamu zvekugara, zvemabhizinesi nemaindasitiri. Zvisinei, indasitiri iyi inotarisanawo nematambudziko: kuvaka grid kuri kusashanda mukuvandudzwa kwesimba remagetsi, nemapurojekiti anopfuura 250 GW esimba rinodzokororwa, kuchengetwa kwesimba uye nzvimbo yedata akamirira kubatanidzwa negrid pasi rose.
Tichitarisa mberi, hunyanzvi hwetekinoroji huchava kiyi yekupfuura nematambudziko. Kuchinja kwedhijitari, hungwaru uye greening zvichave nzira huru dzekuvandudza michina—tekinoroji dzemagetsi dzakangwara, michina miviri yedhijitari uye michina isina kabhoni zvichashandiswa zvakanyanya. Panguva iyi, kutevedzera mitemo yepasi rose yekushandisa simba zvakanaka uye mitemo yekuburitsa kabhoni kuchava chinhu chinodiwa kuti misika iwanikwe, zvichikurudzira mabhizinesi kuti akurumidze kushandura kugadzirwa kwekabhoni uye kuvaka system yekuverenga mafambiro ekabhoni.
Chinhu Chinokosha Chekutora
Gore ra2026 igore rinokosha kune indasitiri yemagetsi nemagetsi pasi rose: shanduko yesimba rinogona kudzokororwa yasvika padanho rekukura, kuvandudzwa kwegrid kuri kukurumidza, uye musika uri kuramba uchikura, asi kusimba kwecheni yekugovera, kuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji uye kutevedzera mitemo zvave matambudziko makuru. Kune vatengesi vemidziyo, kushandisa mikana inounzwa nekubatanidzwa kwesimba rinogona kudzokororwa, kuvandudzwa kwegrid uye kutengeserana kwekuchengetedza mabhatiri, ukuwo vachivandudza kuchinjika kwecheni yekugovera uye kugona kwekuvandudza tekinoroji, zvichave chinhu chikuru chekuwana mugove wemusika. Indasitiri iyi iri kufambira mberi kune ramangwana rinoshanda, rakangwara uye rinogara kwenguva refu, nekukura kwenguva refu kuchitsigirwa zvakasimba nezvinangwa zvekuchinja kwesimba pasi rose.
Nguva yekutumira: Kurume-19-2026
